Sydney Weather Forecast

Q: What is the accuracy range of 7-day weather forecasts for Sydney?

1-day forecasts achieve temperature accuracy within ±2°C approximately 80% of the time. At 7 days, temperature forecasts carry ±4-5°C uncertainty. 1-day rain probability carries 85% reliability; 5-day probability drops to approximately 65%.

Q: How does the BOM issue Sydney weather warnings?

The BOM issues severe weather warnings through a tiered system including Severe Thunderstorm Warnings for wind gusts above 90 km/h and hail exceeding 2 cm, Severe Weather Warnings for East Coast Lows and gale-force winds, and Heatwave warnings when temperatures exceed the 90th percentile for three consecutive days.

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The next routine forecast will be issued at 4:45 am EST Tuesday.

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Sydney Weather Forecast: Daily and 7-Day Metropolitan Outlook

Sydney, the capital of New South Wales, occupies a coastal basin at latitude 33.87°S and longitude 151.21°E on Australia's southeastern seaboard. The city's weather forecast covers a metropolitan area of 12,368 km² spanning from Palm Beach in the north to Cronulla in the south, and from the Pacific Ocean coastline to the Blue Mountains foothills near Penrith. This 7-day forecast delivers temperature ranges, precipitation probability, UV index ratings, and fire danger assessments for eight distinct zones across Greater Sydney.

All forecast data originates from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), the federal agency responsible for meteorological observations and weather prediction across Australia. The BOM operates automatic weather stations at Sydney Airport (station 066037), Observatory Hill (station 066062), and Parramatta (station 066124), among other sites. Each station records air temperature, relative humidity, barometric pressure, wind velocity, and rainfall at regular intervals. This forecast reflects those observations and the BOM's numerical weather prediction models, updated at 6:00 AM Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST) daily.

Sydney Weather Forecast Components and Data Interpretation

Sydney 7-Day Forecast Structure

The forecast displays seven consecutive days of meteorological predictions for the Sydney metropolitan area. Each day presents six data points: minimum temperature (overnight low in °C), maximum temperature (daytime high in °C), weather condition classification (sunny, partly cloudy, overcast, showers, storm), precipitation probability (0-100%), UV index with sun protection timeframes, and bushfire danger rating when the Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) exceeds threshold values.

Sydney Suburb-Level Temperature Forecasts

The sidebar presents temperature forecasts for eight specific localities: Sydney CBD, Penrith, Liverpool, Parramatta, Campbelltown, Richmond, Bondi, and Manly. These locations span a 70-kilometre east-west transect from the Tasman Sea coastline to the Nepean River floodplain. On a summer day, Penrith (elevation 25 m, 55 km inland) records maximum temperatures 8-12°C higher than Bondi (elevation 5 m, coastal). This gradient results from marine boundary layer influences, the sea breeze penetration limit, and the urban heat island effect in western Sydney's built environment.

Precipitation Probability and Rain Gauge Symbology

The rain probability bar uses ten discrete segments. Each filled segment represents 10 percentage points of precipitation likelihood. A 70% rain chance indicates that, based on atmospheric modelling, seven out of ten comparable weather scenarios produce measurable rainfall (at least 0.2 mm within a 24-hour period). The BOM derives this probability from ensemble numerical weather prediction model runs.

Sydney Weather Forecast: Common Questions

What is the update frequency of the Sydney weather forecast?

The forecast updates once daily at 6:00 AM AEST. The Bureau of Meteorology issues the Sydney metropolitan forecast (Product ID: IDN10064) from its Regional Forecasting Centre in Sydney. The issued timestamp appears at the top of the forecast display. During severe weather events, the BOM issues supplementary warnings and forecast amendments outside the standard schedule.

What causes temperature differences between Sydney suburbs?

Three primary mechanisms create temperature variation across Sydney's 12,368 km² metropolitan area. First, the sea breeze—a thermally driven mesoscale wind system—cools coastal suburbs by 5-10°C on summer afternoons but penetrates only 20-30 km inland on typical days. Second, the urban heat island effect raises temperatures in densely built suburbs by 2-4°C above surrounding vegetated areas due to thermal mass absorption by concrete, asphalt, and steel structures. Third, topographic elevation creates adiabatic cooling at a rate of approximately 6.5°C per 1,000 m of altitude gain, affecting suburbs in the Hills District and Blue Mountains foothills.

What do the Australian fire danger ratings represent?

Australia's fire danger rating system uses four levels: Moderate, High, Extreme, and Catastrophic. The rating derives from the Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI), a formula incorporating air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and a drought factor reflecting soil and vegetation moisture deficit. An FFDI above 50 triggers a "Severe" classification; above 75 triggers "Extreme"; above 100 triggers "Catastrophic." The NSW Rural Fire Service uses these ratings to determine resource positioning and public warnings across the Greater Sydney bushfire-prone area, which encompasses 1.5 million hectares of national park and bushland surrounding the metropolitan zone.

What is the accuracy range of 7-day weather forecasts for Sydney?

Forecast accuracy decreases with lead time. The BOM reports that 1-day forecasts for Sydney achieve temperature accuracy within ±2°C approximately 80% of the time. At 3-day lead times, accuracy falls to ±3°C. At 7 days, temperature forecasts carry ±4-5°C uncertainty. Precipitation forecasts follow a similar degradation curve: 1-day rain probability carries 85% reliability; 5-day probability drops to approximately 65%. Extended-range forecasts beyond 7 days rely on climate pattern signals (ENSO phase, Indian Ocean Dipole, Southern Annular Mode) rather than synoptic-scale weather modelling.

How does the BOM issue Sydney weather warnings?

The Bureau of Meteorology issues severe weather warnings for the Sydney metropolitan area through a tiered system. Severe Thunderstorm Warnings activate when radar and atmospheric soundings detect supercell development with damaging wind gusts above 90 km/h, hail exceeding 2 cm diameter, or heavy rainfall rates above 50 mm/hour. Severe Weather Warnings cover broader events: East Coast Lows, sustained gale-force winds, and abnormally high tides. Heatwave warnings trigger when three consecutive days of forecast maximum temperatures exceed the climatological 90th percentile for the relevant BOM district.

Sydney Climate Classification and Meteorological Profile

Sydney's Köppen Climate Classification

Sydney falls under the Köppen climate classification Cfa (humid subtropical climate). The city sits at 33.87°S latitude on the southeastern Australian coast, receiving a mean annual rainfall of 1,213 mm and recording a mean annual temperature of 18.4°C at Observatory Hill (Bureau of Meteorology station 066062, operating since 1858). Sydney receives an average of 2,468 sunshine hours per year. The Tasman Sea, a marginal sea of the South Pacific Ocean, moderates diurnal and seasonal temperature ranges along the 70 km of metropolitan coastline.

Sydney Seasonal Temperature and Rainfall Data

Season	Months	Mean Min (°C)	Mean Max (°C)	Mean Rainfall (mm)	Mean Rain Days
Summer	Dec–Feb	18.6	26.5	327	34
Autumn	Mar–May	14.6	22.8	348	33
Winter	Jun–Aug	8.0	17.3	283	30
Spring	Sep–Nov	12.0	22.5	255	30

Synoptic Weather Systems Affecting Sydney

Four dominant synoptic-scale weather systems govern Sydney's atmospheric conditions:

East Coast Lows (ECLs): Intense extratropical cyclones that form over the Tasman Sea. ECLs generate sustained wind speeds exceeding 100 km/h, rainfall totals above 200 mm in 24 hours, and destructive ocean swells of 6-10 metres. The June 2007 Pasha Bulker ECL produced 374 mm of rainfall in the Hunter Region within 48 hours.
Sea Breeze Circulation: A mesoscale thermally driven wind system originating from the Tasman Sea. The sea breeze front reaches the Sydney coastline by 11:00-12:00 AEST in summer and penetrates 20-30 km inland by 15:00 AEST. Wind speeds at the sea breeze front range from 15-25 km/h.
Southerly Busters: Abrupt cold fronts that propagate northward along the NSW coast. Southerly Busters drop temperatures by 10-15°C within 30 minutes and generate wind gusts of 60-90 km/h. These fronts pass through Sydney approximately 30-40 times per year, predominantly in spring and summer.
Northwest Cloud Bands: Moisture plumes extending from the Indian Ocean across continental Australia to the Tasman Sea. These bands deliver widespread moderate rainfall of 10-30 mm across the Sydney basin over 24-48 hour periods, occurring predominantly in winter and spring.

BOM Weather Observation Network in Sydney

The Bureau of Meteorology maintains 17 automatic weather stations (AWS) across the Greater Sydney metropolitan region. Primary reference stations include Sydney Airport (066037), Observatory Hill (066062), Canterbury Racecourse (066194), Parramatta North (066124), Penrith Lakes (067113), and Terrey Hills (066059). Each AWS records air temperature, dew point, relative humidity, mean sea level pressure, wind speed, wind direction, and rainfall at 1-minute intervals. The Terrey Hills Doppler weather radar (station ID: 71032) provides precipitation tracking within a 256 km radius at 6-minute scan intervals.

Sydney Metropolitan Microclimate Zones

Sydney's 12,368 km² metropolitan area contains five distinct microclimate zones, defined by distance from the coast, elevation, and land use:

Microclimate Zone	Representative Suburb	Distance from Coast	Summer Mean Max (°C)	Winter Mean Min (°C)	Annual Rainfall (mm)
Coastal Strip	Bondi, Manly	0-3 km	25.8	9.3	1,215
Inner Harbour	Sydney CBD, North Sydney	1-5 km	26.5	8.0	1,213
Inner West/South	Canterbury, Bankstown	10-20 km	28.2	6.8	1,020
Western Plains	Penrith, Richmond	45-60 km	31.5	4.2	780
Northern Hills	Terrey Hills, Hornsby	15-25 km	26.8	6.5	1,340

Severe Weather Events and Historical Records for Sydney

Sydney's most extreme recorded weather events define the upper bounds of the city's climate envelope. The highest recorded temperature at Observatory Hill is 45.8°C (18 January 2013). The lowest recorded temperature is 2.1°C (22 June 1932). The wettest single day produced 327 mm of rainfall on 6 August 1986. The 14 April 1999 hailstorm remains Australia's costliest natural disaster by insured loss, with $1.7 billion in damage from hailstones up to 9 cm in diameter across the eastern suburbs. The 2022 eastern seaboard floods delivered 672 mm of rainfall across four days in March to the Sydney basin, causing widespread inundation.

Climate Trends and Projections for Sydney NSW

Sydney's mean annual temperature has increased by 1.1°C since 1910, according to CSIRO and BOM State of the Climate 2024 analysis. The number of days per year exceeding 35°C at Observatory Hill has increased from an average of 2.5 days (1961-1990 baseline) to 4.1 days (1991-2020 period). Rainfall intensity for the 99th percentile events has increased by 10-15% since 1960, while total annual rainfall shows no statistically significant trend. CSIRO projections under the SSP2-4.5 emissions scenario indicate Sydney will experience 1.4-2.4°C of additional warming by 2070, with a 10-20% increase in extreme rainfall intensity and 20-40 additional heatwave days per decade.

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